Yesterday we did to you a summary of Stock Exchange of 2008 in which we were speaking to you about the difficulties for which the international markets had happened. To do a few Stock Exchange forecasts for 2009 is something really difficult, especially when not in years theoretically easier the analysts have been right.
Few ones risk to do them because there are great the determinants that still reign in the world economy. The doubts and the fears are still going to be very present on the markets in the first months of the year and we are going to be at the expense of the information that are going out: the interest rates, the economic recession in the principal economic potency, the profit warnings …
But over everything there will be the recovery of two principal affected sectors this year those that do that the Stock Exchanges begin to recover: the financier and the real estate one.
Probably he will be the financier the first one in recovering at the moment when the credit market is relaxing and turns the interbank confidence. And the principal indicator of which ésto it happens is the tendency to the fall of the Euribor. For the real estate sector the waiting will be major, especially, while the prices of the housing keep on going down.
For these reasons I believe that 2009 will go of less to more and will be showing us a gradual recovery of the bank values. In spite of the ups and downs that are going to produce insurance to themselves, Santander or BBVA can be good long-term investments, that we will be able to be entering throughout 2009. It is not necessary to forget as well as they take a low PER (5,19 and 5,66) and very high profitability as a dividend (10,07 % and 8,83 % respectively).
It is for a long time that I have betting also for the renewable energies and believe that Abengoa and Iberdrola Renovables have suffered an excessive punishment. Phone companhy is, on the other hand, a sure value that also has born enough good the last trimester of the year. His PER is of 9,82 and his profitability for dividend of 5,68 %. And if we bet on a recovery of the markets throughout the year, BME must be another value to have in portfolio, moreover when periodically it has turned out to be wrapped in rumors of corporate movements.
Mecalux, Solaria, CAF … is values of the second line that well might be born in mind also.
2009 will be a difficult year, that is not doubt, worse also it can be a good year to begin to sow selectively.
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- Spain is the country with more deflation risk
- The slowness in maxima for 12 years
- Housing, it continues the collapse
- Movements to receive deposits
- The Euribor keeps on beating descent records
- Week of breather and increases in Stock Exchange
- SICAV, an alternative of investment
- The unknown side of the mortgages in Spain
- Loans 2.0, credit between individuals
- Price war in the feeding
- It continues the fall of the interest rates and the Stock Exchange
- Measurements of the government against the unemployment, without consensus
- The bank crisis in Stock Exchange
- The unemployment in Spain and the bad economic management
- The economic crisis generates opportunities
- The labor calendar of 2009
- TAE, meaning and calculation
- Interprofessional minimum wage 2009 and minimal pensions
- The IPC of the rents: calculation and update
- Forecasts of the Euribor for 2009
- The best deposits of January, 2009
- The Euribor: calculation and meaning
- Evolution of the interest rates and his consequences
- Where to put the money in epochs of crisis
- Pension plans 2008 of the Santander