Historical types clipping in the USA

www.minus19.com

17-12-2008 | Javier Gomez

fall of the dollar

The Federal Reservation of the United States, the Fed, threw yesterday on the table his last and riskiest letter: that of an aggressive clipping of the price of the money of more than 0,75 points, of 1 % in which they were up to a status of between 0 % and 0,25 %, a few historical types in that country.

The surprise was such that in Wall Street the indicators went off over 4 % (4,21 %) while the Nasdaq raised 5,41 %. The first logical reaction when it is a question of a types clipping (that always comes well to the stock markets) over for what one was waiting. And the fact is that the average consensus of the market was waiting for a clipping of half a point, and for the most optimistic of 0,75 points. Far from what both were waiting, Bernanke answered it lowering in a status of between 0,75 and 1 point and indicating that also it will support them there during a good weather.

But as we say, the second clear reading is that the economy deteriorates, and that the deflation risk is increasingly close. Yesterday the same a very dangerous fact was known: that of the North American inflation that fell down in November a 1,7 % leaving the interannual one in 1,1 %, very close already of the awesome deflation. Let's add to ésto the fall of the consumption, the descent of the investment, that the unemployment is uncontrolled and that the interbank tension continues so above that the credit conditions keep on being durísimas and inaccessible for an important sector of the population, and we will have all the ingredients of the most dangerous cocktail.

The first visible result has been the impact on the quotation of the dollar that from December 5 has fallen down in his change opposite to the euro from 1,26 up to the 1,40 whom it quotes at present. up to where will it come? which will the forecasts be now for the dollar in 2009? Supposedly, the crisis is global, and as it has done the Fed, the BCE will have to choose to cut types away, but while ésto it is like that, the recovery that had initiated the dollar lately has turned out to be cut incisively.

What has he left to the Fed now when it has thrown his principal letter? does the economy remain without a clear support with which to settle future economic problems? seemingly, this way it is, what it does not mean that the Governments are not going to act and look for alternatives. It gives the sensation that they begin to act in desperation. For prompt Bernanke has already announced the possible long-term debt buy and of titulizaciones you would mortgage of the agencies.

Let's hope that this expert in the sleeve should be sufficient to confront the future. For the prompt thing, already we will see today the reaction of the stock markets in the USA with the head more in cold and after reading between lines thoroughly the speech of the Fed …

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