The agency of credit qualification Standard and Poor's believes that Spain and Ireland are the European countries in which the global economic crisis places in a more probable situation to suffer deflation. Other countries, on the other hand, are considered to be "immune" by the report. There are Germany, France and Italy.

“The descents in the GDP registered in the second half of the year have continued in the first trimester of 2009 postponing the hopes of an upturn in the activity at the end of this year”, indicates the economist chief of S&P, as they gather diverse news agencies.

The analysis of the economist thinks that although the descent of the prices of last months impels of the purchasing power, the consumers prefer to be cautious and save since they do not seem to have hopes that the crisis finishes in a short term. For this motive S&P they believe that the perspectives of such a weak “” recovery raise the doubts if the current "deflation" might transform in deflation, what it would lead to the consumers to postpone his decisions of buy and to keeping on saving.

We would enter this way a spiral of hoarding that would aggravate the recession, at the same time that the costs of the indebtedness would increase. “The gravity of the current recession in the Euro area is much difficult the work of the BCE since the member countries do not seem to be the same way equipped to resist the deflationary pressures”, affirms Jean-Michel Six who thinks that Germany, France and even Italy, they seem "immune" to a deflationary spiral, while “the same cannot be said about Ireland and Spain, where the recession probably will affect for a major time period”.

For S&P, the European Central Bank will have the hands tied to apply monetary measurements that correct the situation because a bonds single market does not exist in the Euro area, but a set of markets of national bonds named in euros.

This situation is very difficult that could take measures, as if it might do the British central bank. Nevertheless, the report points out that a series of factors exists in the Euro area like the low level of indebtedness, the relative rigidity of the nominal wages and the positive expectations of inflation that are still supported in the block, at which they aim against the deflation risk.

A diagnosis more that, although he does not lack logic (since the countries that more have grown are those who have more risk of suffering in epochs of crisis) it places us in a pessimism stela for the Spanish economy.

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