The importance of the confidence in the decision making

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14-11-2008 | Javier Gomez

We are human, and we demonstrate it when the fears or the desconfianzas overwhelm us, but also when, with a slap in the back they try to cheer us up making us see that not everything is of rose color, but neither it it is of black color. In these moments we act as gone simply on impulses, therefore the heart dictates us forgetting neither any logic nor technical rule.

This is what has come happening throughout these last two months when we saw to fall down to solid values like the BBVA, the Santander or Phone companhy concerning 10 % in only one meeting. Then as if the world was finished, and the meigas were coming to take our dineros, we were running after everything sold it at the price that he was thinking that in a little time these Banks would close his doors, and our money would disappear.

Today, the stock-exchange chronicle is equal, only that in this occasion the sign is positive. Yesterday, in another meeting without feet or head we saw like the Stock Exchange in the USA it was going so far as to fall down to half a meeting almost 4 %, but they were enough a few Mr. slaps. Bush in the back of a few so that what was black was white, and so that the most absolute suspicion and fear was turning into confidence and safety. And of falling down 4 % in a little time, the Stock Exchanges nortemaericanas ended up by raising more than 6 %.

Logic? None. Let's not think that Bush, in his speech of last night in New York came with the magic formula under the arm to save to the world encómico. No. It did not even give or moved forward new measurements that were going to be realized. Simply he limited himself to recognizing past errors, to saying that there are economic institutions that must reform, like the IMF, and to affirm that the capitalism is not finished and that it is the best system of economy of the world. Little more of substance. A speech merely political of face wash to try at least insuflar a little of confidence in lso shaken national fortitudes. But especially, it was this last part, this apology for the capitalism, which served to raise the fortitudes and which all in plan patriotic and, they were deciding to buy to one like madmen.

Yes, we are human. It is not doubt. Because in the same way that we did not hear those who were saying to us that the prices of the Banks were very cheap and that the punishments were excessive, now we do not also hear the voices that advise prudence. They all looked at another side when there happened the bad forecasts of benefits of big two of the American economy like Intel or Wal Mart. Nobody seemed to throw account to the fact that went out yesterday of that the requests of subsidy of unemployment were the highest from 2001, or that the unemployment rate in the USA was the highest in 14 years. Everything did not matter. Suddenly, as if a divine hope wave had passed for Wall Street, they threw themselves to buy all.

The bad thing is that tomorrow the European human beings (included we, the Spanish) will throw ourselves to buy like madmen to continue the stela of Wall Street, all with the confidence put in the meetings of the G20, and as always, there will be small shareholders they will do it late and badly. And very much we are afraid that more of one will catch the fingers from himself. Because we still have left a few frights ahead. The same Bush said it between teeth.

Not even the things were so black earlier, there nor are so half notes today. There are still many things for arranging, and the Stock Exchange will rise, I do not believe that that anybody doubts it, but there will be many saw teeth in the stock-exchange graphs that will leave a lot of personal damages for the way. That's why, in moments in which the markets are ruled by the irrationality of the feelings, it is necessary to act with a lot of prudence.

If we want to invest because we believe that the Stock Exchange will make us win in the long term, let's do it, but with the safety of which we will take our good frights, and of which we will have to have the very moderate nerves. Let's leave at the moment the speculation for the professionals and those who can and can be the whole day opposite to the screens.

Let's remain with that this slap of confidence of Mr. Bush can open the eyes to us to see the fund of the curve of prices a bit further every day. and what demons … that a hope breath to the ear always helps to cheer up, although a breath is only that ….

To read more on: Stock Exchange, world Economy
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