When holders are read like “the climb of the unemployment in the USA certifies the recession …”, or “the biggest fall in the history of the industry” or “the biggest number of destruction of employment from …”, the truth is that more of one thinks of extracting the money from which it is had, of hiding it in a sock and of waiting to that descampe the thunderstorm put to good collection in small house. And the fact is that lately only there seems to go out bad macroeconomic information that they seem to say to us that ésto it has not done any more that to start.
Even the recent descent of the price of the money in 0,75 points, over the awaited thing, in a decision also historical, might scare the most identical, because after all it is like warning us that the central banks realize the hurricane in which the economies of the world are put.
“Thunderstorms“, “hurricanes“, “historical decisions”, yes, everything leads us to facing the one that is the biggest economic and financial crisis of the history. And yes, the macroeconomic information is the awful, but all those who move in the economic world, they know that the economy moves for cycles, and that as such of all they leave later or earlier.
What it is necessary to bear in mind, to avoid personal decisions of which then we could repent, is that from the Governments the opportune measures are taken, although they are late and that it is necessary only to have the necessary patience to leave that the time happens and that these measurements are reactivating the economy.
It is true that the debts asphyxiate but it is not less true than the tendency to the fall of the Euribor, that in 2009 it even can come to 2 % according to forecasts, it will do that our payments get cheaper. The mortgages will be 18 % cheaper with a descent up to 2,5 %, and we will be at the level of 2005 (a mortgage of 133.000 € to 25 years and euribor+0,5 % will suppose with an euribor to 2,5 % a monthly quota of 634 € much more accessible than it is at present). The slowness that now is at historical levels will go down and the banks, little by little, will be will recapture again the confidence that now they seem to have loss. The companies will turn out to be more relieved and will have more facility to ask for new loans, and anyway, the economy will be reactivated again.
Cycles. And time to the time. It is necessary only to leave that the money circulates. And it will do it, that is not doubt. And as always, the Stock Exchanges that so pulled down have us as his fatidical year of descents, will be anticipated again, because it is not necessary to forget that these always move forward in several months the tendencies of the economies. Every time there are more the voices that warn come the moment to be entering little by little solid values. That Santander to 6 euros or BBVA to 7 or so many people others are at very cheap prices looking in the long term, nobody doubts it. That it is possible that they still cut something more away, yes, also. But that the investment opportunities do not arise either it is doubted.
No. Much less I do not even want to look like a positivist, but find these chinks that they allow us to breathe a little. 2009 will be a difficult and long year, economically speaking. The USA has destroyed 530.000 work places in the last month, the biggest from the year 1974; yesterday we find out that the biggest fall of the history took place in the industry, the affiliation to the Social security has fallen down for eighth month consecutive, and sectors like the real estate one or the car one are much touched by this crisis. Yes, 2009 will be a year of global recession in all the world economies, and it bothers enough to be in hands of the banks and of his decisions to liberate the credit, but they will do it.
Perhaps never how till now, could the confidence play such an important role. Confidence for our part in the economic politics. Confidence on the part of the Banks in the Spanish hearths. Confidence of the businessmen in the Banks. Confidence, patience and.
… time to the time.
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- Movements to receive deposits
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- Week of breather and increases in Stock Exchange
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- The unknown side of the mortgages in Spain
- Loans 2.0, credit between individuals
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- The bank crisis in Stock Exchange
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- Forecasts of the Euribor for 2009
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- Evolution of the interest rates and his consequences
- Where to put the money in epochs of crisis
- Pension plans 2008 of the Santander