Summary of Stock Exchange of the year 2008

www.minus19.com

01-01-2009 | Javier Gomez

2008 is going to go down in history like that of the worst result obtained by the Spanish Stock Exchange in all his existence, with a fall of 39,4 %, superficially even of terrifying years like that of the Big Depression, in 1931, when it went so far as to fall down 32 %, or that of 1977 with the crisis of the oil, when it made it 32,3 %, or in 2002 with the prick of the technological bubble in which it fell down 28,11 %.

If we add other information as that to that they were left by the way up to 338.000 million euros only in the Spanish bag (and they rise to 30 trillion dollars of capitalization in the world bags) or like which only two values have risen inside the general index (Union Fenosa and Funespaña), we will realize the scope that has had the stock-exchange disaster. There have been five years of increase that have turned out to be broken with one of descent, and of what way.

The year had begun in the level of 15.182 points and it has finished them in 9.195, although it marked a minimum on November 28 in 7.905 points. For the way there have remained big harmed, the real estate agencies that have had, as a whole, strong losses that 50 % of his value has led them to losing in Stock Exchange. But if we them analyze one to one, the disaster becomes more clear:

He affirms:-92 %
Colonial:-91,49 %
It rents Corporation:-87,96 %
Inbesós:-81,14 %
Sacyr Vallehermoso:-76,05 %
Martinsa-Fadesa:-56,83 %

… and that for quoting only some examples. But not only the real estate sector has been the affected one, and the fact is that the financial institutions have suffered first hand the economic turbulencies that had his first expansive waves with the financial collapse suffered by Bear Stearns in the USA, first, and later with the failure of Lehman Brothers. The suspicion propagated of parquet in parquet from Wall Street, and the banks began to fall down in stung. In a little time solid entities as Santander or BBVA saw his capitalization cut away sudden. Of marking maxima in 12,89 euros in May, the Santander, it happened to quote to 5,11 € in November. The BBVA for his part went down 15,63 € in January to 7,16 € in November. Finally, our two strongest banks have finished with losses of 54,36 % and of 48,33 %.

Pernicious is the word that better might adapt itself to the situation through that we have lived in Stock Exchange in this 2008. A general economic crisis that has punished the investors for twelve months and that probably does some time more. Nevertheless, it is not necessary to forget that in general, the Stock Exchange moves forward in any months the economic situations, and that the strong descents started already in January, enough before the Governments were assuming what was coming to them above. For the same reason, the Stock Exchanges will begin to repuntar enough before we see the first happy moments in the global economy. So much it is like that, that even if we have had the frights that we have spent on the world markets, in the last month we have managed to support the level of 9.000 points, and at least, the measures that have taking place this trust that grants the knowledge that the Governments of every country try to go out for the quite of every new obstacle.

And the fact is that as often we have said, the confidence it is quite in the Stock Exchange, and this one tends to accentuate these fears. So much that many gurus think that the falls have been excessive in many values (and it exists no more that there see the PER that some of them have).

Such a low PER, and the profitability for dividend in historical maxima they do now that the investment in Stock Exchange begins appearing, at the current levels, like a good long-term investment.

2009 will bring to us new frights and new swaying, but at least, everything seems a little more controlled, and be as it is, this crisis will happen and again the Stock Exchanges will be the first ones in reflecting the possible progress. What is not doubt is that, which gunmen, us two options fit: to be always attentive and ready to find a good moment of entry, or to enter with a view to a long term, knowing that these prices can be a magnificent buy opportunity.

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